Monday 11 December 2017
“I cannot prevent the French from being French.” - Charles de Gaulle
New book release: The 2012 French Presidential Elections
By Jocelyn Evans, Gilles Ivaldi
08 November 2013 | General | 186 words
The 2012 French presidential elections were a watershed moment for the French Left, marking their return to the presidency for the first time in almost two decades. From early in the campaign, the victory of François Hollande appeared inevitable, given the unpopularity of the right-wing incumbent, Nicolas Sarkozy, and the economic crisis afflicting France.

This book provides a comprehensive analysis of the lead-up to the presidential elections, including the political landscape, the candidate selection and the campaign. It looks at how each of the ten candidates set out their policy alternatives and how the right, in particular, failed to present the united front necessary to defeat a coherent Left challenge. It also examines the events and outcomes of the subsequent legislative elections, to understand whether these elections now represent anything more than an early plebiscite for the newly elected president.

Table of Contents

1. Introduction
2. Knowns and unknowns: identifying the critical spaces of the 2012 elections
3. Party cooperation and conflict: actors' competitive positioning
4. Candidate selection processes and effects
5. Issues, policy debates and candidate valence
6. Campaign events
7. Polls and VP-functions: forecasting the elections
8. The legislative elections of June 2012
9. Conclusion


Welcome to '500Signatures', for analysis and commentary on French politics and elections

This blog is produced by Jocelyn Evans (University of Leeds) and Gilles Ivaldi (University of Nice)

Politicizing terror: terrorism and the 2017 presidential race
Hollande’s calculation behind the French socialist presidential primary
Is the French 2017 presidential battle already over?
Estimating Marine Le Pen’s 2017 presidential vote share
Walking a fine line? Hollande and the French Left
All roads lead to Rome: French parties on the way to the 2017 presidentials
Ils ne passeront pas – the stemming of the FN tide in the regional run-offs
The FN on the threshold of regional government
Regional elections and the anti-Muslim backlash
Politics in a time of war?
A right-wing landslide but no far-right tsunami: the departmental election run-off
The Front national is not France’s first party
What to expect in next month’s French departmental elections
Departmentals 2015: the new French elections no-one seems to care about
Beta-testing social-liberalism 2.0
France’s new earthquake election? The FN in the European elections

posts have been published
since 10 January 2012

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Jocelyn Evans [@JocelynAJEvans] is Professor of Politics at the University of Leeds

Gilles Ivaldi is a CNRS researcher in political science based at the University of Nice



- Forecasting the FN vote in Second-Order elections (updated 12 May 2014)

- Forecasting the FN vote in Second-Order elections (Jan. 2014)

- Polling scores by polling type (CATI v CAWI) (updated 20 April 2012)

- Estimating Marine Le Pen's vote in the 2012 presidentials: an experiment (November 2011)

- Data for the 2011 expert forecast survey (in CSV file)



Last modified on Monday 25 April 2016
Copyright Gilles Ivaldi - @2012-2014