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Forecast update for the Marseille municipals
By Gilles Ivaldi
11 March 2014 | Polls & Forecasts | 640 words
Last month, we suggested that the Marseille municipal election could result in a hung municipal council and relative majority for the left, with the FN in the position of king maker. According to the latest BVA poll, the chances that the PS could win the city have become slimmer: second-round voting intentions show support for the left at 39 per cent against 45 per cent for the right-wing coalition, with the FN down to 16 per cent.

First and second-round voting intentions in the Marseille Municipals

Source: BVA-Poll for Le Parisien and RTL, 10 March 2014



Contrary to earlier anticipations, about a third of the FG and Pape Diouf’s supporters could in fact desert the ranks of the left in the second round (see Figure below).

Vote shifts between the two rounds

Source: BVA-Poll for Le Parisien and RTL, 10 March 2014



Using our multidistrict model based on the relative strengths of the parties in the 2012 legislatives, the right could miss the overall majority by just one seat, winning a total of 50 municipal councillors, against 42 and 9 for the left and the FN, respectively (see table below). Under this hypothesis, the main losses by the left would be found in the third sector where the right would take the lead in the second round with about 46 per cent of the vote against 42 per cent for the left. This would deprive Marie-Arlette Carlotti of the six bonus seats allocated under the PLM electoral formula and therefore give a decisive advantage to the UMP.

As this new forecast suggests, there would clearly be less incentive for the UMP to seek a tactical agreement with Ravier’s FN in order to achieve an overall majority in Marseille’s council. Based on the past history of FN-right relationships in Marseille, one could expect for instance that a number of the newly elected ‘Bleu Marine’ representatives would be tempted to defect to the ruling UMP majority in exchange for key posts in the new local administration.

Finally, the BVA poll gives a 16 per cent support to the FN across the city. In the first sector, where PS leader Patrick Mennucci is seeking re-election, this would translate into 10.8 per cent of the vote for the far right, raising the possibility that the FN would not clear the 10 per cent threshold. Such failure by the FN to progress to the second round would clearly give the advantage to the UMP in what could therefore be yet another ‘Marseille’ surprise. Let us recall here that Mennucci had won the first sector by a narrow margin against the UMP (50.7 as opposed to 49.3 per cent) in the run-off duel of 2008. As the political tide seems to be shifting towards the right, Mennucci may well find himself unanticipated collateral damage of the socialists’ unpopularity nationally.

Predicted number of municipal seats*

 

 

Estimated second-round vote

Projected seats

Secteur

Seats

Left

Right

FN

Bonus seats (PLM)

Left

Right

FN

1

11

45.1

44.1

10.8

6

8

2

1

2

8

58.9

28.8

12.3

4

6

1

1

3

11

42.0

45.7

12.2

6

2

8

1

4

15

32.0

57.0

11.0

8

2

12

1

5

15

29.3

52.6

18.1

8

2

12

1

6

13

36.1

45.8

18.1

7

2

10

1

7

16

43.2

33.3

23.5

8

11

3

2

8

12

54.8

25.7

19.5

6

9

2

1

                 

MARSEILLE

101

39.0

45.0

16.0

 

42

50

9


*Seat forecast based on BVA poll of 10 March 2014, adjusted for district polarization in the 2012 legislatives


The BVA poll should be taken with some caution however. The survey was conducted both city-wide and, using oversampling, as a specific trial heat poll of the municipal race in the 3rd sector. The two polls contradict each other. While the city poll suggests there could be a significant widening of the gap between the left (-2 points) and the right (+3 points) compared with last month’s CSA poll, the results for the 3rd sector show on the other hand very stable levels of support for Carlotti and other left-wing lists, similar to the TNS-SOFRES poll conducted in early February and to the more recent CSA survey of last week. Whether this patchy polling evidence reflects sampling errors or the specific dynamic of the third sector will largely determine the final outcome on the canebière.

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Welcome to '500Signatures', for analysis and commentary on French politics and elections

This blog is produced by Jocelyn Evans (University of Leeds) and Gilles Ivaldi (University of Nice)

 
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ABOUT THE AUTHORS

Jocelyn Evans [@JocelynAJEvans] is Professor of Politics at the University of Leeds

Gilles Ivaldi is a CNRS researcher in political science based at the University of Nice

 
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CATEGORY
 
DATA

- Forecasting the FN vote in Second-Order elections (updated 12 May 2014)

- Forecasting the FN vote in Second-Order elections (Jan. 2014)

- Polling scores by polling type (CATI v CAWI) (updated 20 April 2012)

- Estimating Marine Le Pen's vote in the 2012 presidentials: an experiment (November 2011)

- Data for the 2011 expert forecast survey (in CSV file)

 

 


 
Last modified on Monday 25 April 2016
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