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A kingmaker FN in Marseille?
By Jocelyn Evans, Gilles Ivaldi
20 March 2014 | Polls & Forecasts | 299 words
In the final run up to the Marseille municipals, the latest CSA poll suggests a tight race on the Canebière, with Jean-Claude Gaudin’s UMP polling 43 per cent of the second-round vote against 41 per cent for the left and 16 per cent for Stéphane Ravier’s FN. Last month, we suggested that the Marseille election could result in a hung municipal council and relative majority for the left, with the FN in the position of kingmaker.

Second-round voting intentions in the Marseille Municipals

CSA Poll for BFMTV, Orange, Le Figaro and Ricoh (18 March 2014)



Using the results of the CSA poll (see table below), our multidistrict model suggests the following:

- Patrick Mennucci and his allies should win five of the eight secteurs (1,2,3,7 and 8)
- Marie-Arlette Carlotti would top a very tight race in the third sector, critically taking the six bonus seats allocated under the PLM electoral formula, a forecast consistent with the latest IFOP poll conducted in the third sector;
- the left would therefore win a relative majority of 49 out of 101 seats, against 43 for the right and 9 for the FN;
- unless the mainstream parties enter a ‘grand municipal coalition’, the Marseille city council would be hung;
- with an anticipated 9 seats, the local FN would clearly be kingmaker in electing the mayor;
- this would create strong incentives for the local UMP to cooperate with the far right, putting the cordon sanitaire under strain and possibly heralding a new episode of political accommodation in the Mediterranean South.

Predicted number of municipal seats*

 

 

Estimated second-round vote

Projected seats

Secteur

Seats

Left

Right

FN

Bonus seats (PLM)

Left

Right

FN

1

11

47.1

42.1

10.8

6

8

2

1

2

8

60.9

26.8

12.3

4

6

1

1

3

11

44.0

43.7

12.2

6

8

2

1

4

15

34.0

55.0

11.0

8

2

12

1

5

15

31.3

50.6

18.1

8

2

12

1

6

13

38.2

43.7

18.1

7

2

10

1

7

16

45.2

31.3

23.5

8

12

2

2

8

12

56.8

23.7

19.5

6

9

2

1

                 

MARSEILLE

101

41.0

43.0

16.0

 

49

43

9

*Seat forecast based on CSA poll of 18 March 2014, adjusted for district polarization in the 2012 legislatives.



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Welcome to '500Signatures', for analysis and commentary on French politics and elections

This blog is produced by Jocelyn Evans (University of Leeds) and Gilles Ivaldi (University of Nice)

 
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ABOUT THE AUTHORS

Jocelyn Evans [@JocelynAJEvans] is Professor of Politics at the University of Leeds

Gilles Ivaldi is a CNRS researcher in political science based at the University of Nice

 
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CATEGORY
 
DATA

- Forecasting the FN vote in Second-Order elections (updated 12 May 2014)

- Forecasting the FN vote in Second-Order elections (Jan. 2014)

- Polling scores by polling type (CATI v CAWI) (updated 20 April 2012)

- Estimating Marine Le Pen's vote in the 2012 presidentials: an experiment (November 2011)

- Data for the 2011 expert forecast survey (in CSV file)

 

 


 
Last modified on Monday 25 April 2016
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